Will interest rates go down? Bank forecasts, November 2026

The current forecasts from CBA, NAB, ANZ and Westpac don't point to a rate cut in 2026. They are split on November: CBA and NAB expect a hold at 4.60%, while ANZ and Westpac expect a rise to 4.85%. The RBA has left open further increases while inflation remains too high.

Your lender can still offer you a better rate while the RBA leaves rates alone or raises them. I'd ask your current bank for a better deal, then compare refinancing options.

When comparing loans, use the rate you qualify for and your remaining term. A headline about the cash rate cannot tell you what your own repayment will be.

A rise from 6.00% to 6.25% would add about $113 a month to a $700k principal-and-interest loan with 30 years remaining. Put that amount into your budget alongside the bills you already pay.

Here are the same calculations for 3 loan balances:

These are example monthly principal-and-interest repayments over 30 years, excluding fees and offset balances. Figures and changes are rounded separately, so subtracting displayed repayments can give a $1 difference. The cost of a 0.25% rise is slightly higher at higher starting rates. Our guide to what the 4.60% cash rate means for your budget walks through the rest.

If your rate rose twice, from 6.00% to 6.50%, the $700k loan above would cost about $228 more a month. Your lender decides which rate changes apply to your loan.

Use your balance, remaining term and current rate in our repayment calculator. Then test rates 0.25% and 0.50% higher. If your rate falls instead, ask whether you can keep the higher repayment to reduce the balance faster.

The RBA's minutes, released on 13 October, left further rises on the table. Two days later, the ABS reported 39,300 fewer jobs in September and unemployment at 4.7%. The ABC then reported that markets put the chance of a November rise at about 15%, down from 30% the day before.

The forecasts above put possible relief in the second half of 2027. That depends on inflation easing as the economy slows. I'd allow for the wait to be longer.

A fixed rate generally stays unchanged during its fixed period. With a variable loan, any repayment relief depends on your lender's rate and the terms of your loan.

None of the sources in this guide forecasts rates through to 2031. The table below shows how far each forecast goes.

What “neutral” means

Economists call a rate 'neutral' when it neither speeds up nor slows down the economy, with inflation at target and employment in balance. In August, the RBA put 4.35% at the top of its main estimates. That estimate can change as investment, productivity and savings change. Christopher Kent’s March 2026 speech explains why the RBA uses several models rather than one fixed number.

How to read market pricing

Market prices show what traders expect, which can change quickly and differ from bank forecasts. The ASX RBA Rate Tracker covers the next meeting. It doesn't predict your mortgage rate over 5 years.

The starting rate matters too. On a $700k loan with 30 years left, moving from 6.75% to 7.00% adds about $117 a month, compared with $113 in the earlier example. Both exclude fees and offset balances.

I'd decide based on your budget, deposit and plans for the home. Waiting for a particular rate cut doesn't guarantee a cheaper purchase or an easier approval.

1. Your comfortable repayment. What can you pay while still covering living costs and saving for the unexpected? Check it at a higher rate too.
2. Your cash left after settlement. Allow for the deposit, buying costs and money you'll need after moving in.
3. What the bank will lend. Ask your broker or lender to confirm what you can borrow under current rates and lending rules.

Waiting may give you time to save more or pay down debts. You'll also keep paying rent, and the property price or mortgage rate you face later could change. Buying sooner can give you housing certainty if the home and the costs fit your plans.

Possibly, but a national forecast can't tell you what a particular home is worth.

CBA's research note dated 14 October puts the total national price fall from the peak at 10%, followed by a modest recovery in 2027. That updates the 9% forecast it gave on 1 September. It covers the whole decline from the peak, not another 10% off today's prices. The AMP and HSBC forecasts above were published in September.

Cotality's 1 October release put September's national dwelling-value fall at 1.1%, taking values 5.2% below the March peak. For a home you're considering, recent comparable sales and its condition matter more than a national percentage.

A higher mortgage rate can reduce the loan a bank will approve. Banks generally test repayments at least 3% above the actual rate, with a few exceptions for refinances. So a loan at 6.00% gets tested at 9.00% or more. You don't pay that rate, but it caps what the bank will lend.

The change in your borrowing limit depends on your income, expenses, debts and lender. If rates or your circumstances have changed since pre-approval, ask for a fresh check before making an offer.

A competitive rate is one you can actually get for a loan that suits you. An advertised rate for a borrower with a much larger deposit may not be available in your situation.

For context, the RBA published these averages for new housing loans in August 2026:

These RBA housing-loan averages are for August 2026, before the 29 September rise, and include fixed and variable loans. After the September rise, Canstar put the average owner-occupier variable rate (principal and interest) at 6.75% on 13 October. For a current comparison, get written quotes using the same loan amount, deposit, repayment type and features.

Compare the interest rate and comparison rate, then check fees and offset access. Our home loan features guide explains what to look for.

Your deposit, credit history and loan details can change the rates available to you. Ask what rate you'd actually get before comparing it with the advertised offer.

Your loan-to-value ratio, or LVR, is your loan divided by the value the lender accepts for the property. A $640k loan against an $800k valuation is an 80% LVR. You still need to allow for buying costs.

Some lenders offer a lower rate at a lower LVR. The thresholds and discounts vary, so check the actual offer and fees.

You will usually need lenders mortgage insurance, or LMI, if you borrow more than 80% of the property's value. A government guarantee or a waiver for your profession could help you avoid it. Our LMI guide explains the conditions.

There isn't a credit score that guarantees everyone the same discount. Lenders also look at your repayments, debts, income and the property you're buying.

Check your credit report for errors before applying. Paying a debt doesn't automatically remove an accurate default, and a higher score doesn't guarantee a cheaper loan.

You can ask for a better deal now without waiting for an RBA cut. I'd start with your current lender, then compare that offer with suitable alternatives.

Compare the saving after switching costs, using the same remaining loan term. Restarting a 30-year term may lower your repayments but increase the total interest you pay. If your loan is fixed, get a break-cost quote before making a decision.

Suppose switching costs $2,000 and saves $150 a month after ongoing fees. It takes about 13 to 14 months to earn back the switching costs. That assumes the monthly saving stays the same. You still need to compare how quickly each loan pays down the balance.

You could use this script:

“I'd like a pricing review on my home loan. My balance is [amount], my rate is [rate], and I've found a comparable offer at [rate] for my loan type and LVR. What's the best rate you can offer? Would any fees or loan features change?”

If your fixed period is ending, ask for the rate and repayment that will apply afterwards. Allow time to compare your options. The new lender still needs to approve you and value the property. Your equity affects your options, and switching won't always save you money.

See our refinancing guide for the steps involved.

For a 2-year versus 5-year term, compare how long you expect to keep the loan and what it would cost to leave early. Check both offers' extra-repayment limits too.

Compare the trade-offs in our fixed and variable home loan guide. For the basics of choosing a loan, see how to choose the right home loan.

The RBA cut 3 times in 2025, taking the cash rate from 4.35% to 3.60%. Four increases in 2026 brought it to 4.60% from 30 September. That reversal is a reason to leave room in your budget for more than one outcome.

The ABS release on 30 September put August's annual headline inflation at 4.0%, up from 3.5% in July. Annual trimmed mean inflation held at 3.6%. That underlying measure reduces the effect of unusually large price movements and remains above the RBA's 2% to 3% target range.

Housing and fuel costs contributed to the headline increase. Those increases don't mean prices are rising faster across the whole economy.

CBA's 22 October preview expects annual headline inflation of 4.2% for September and underlying inflation of 3.6%. These are forecasts ahead of the ABS release. They aren't new inflation results. CBA still expects no change in November, but says stronger or more widespread price rises could push the RBA towards another increase.

I'd keep room in the budget for rates to stay higher. The result doesn't set your mortgage rate or lock in the next RBA decision. The August ABS release has the details. The next inflation figures are due on 28 October.

CBA's Wage and Labour Insights: August 2026, prepared on 9 September 2026, uses its own salary-transaction data.

CBA’s Wage and Labour Insights report uses its own salary-transaction data. Hours worked and changes in the people receiving wages can affect these measures, so they differ from the official ABS jobs and wage series.

The report points to easing wage pressure. The newer September jobs figures are covered above, but weaker jobs alone don't settle whether inflation is low enough for cuts.

Households can be spending less while prices keep rising. CBA points to energy costs, government spending and investment in data centres and other major projects keeping pressure on prices. Weak productivity also makes it harder for the economy to meet demand without costs rising. So a slower economy doesn't automatically mean cheaper home loans.

Weaker spending or employment could ease pressure. The RBA weighs those developments together, which is why a forecast can change after new data.

The same RBA decision affects investors and home buyers, but their rates and expenses can differ. The RBA averages earlier in this guide don't mean every lender charges investors the same extra amount.

If you're investing, allow for vacancies, maintenance, insurance and management costs. Check the repayment if an interest-only period ends and you start paying down the loan as well.

If you're buying a home to live in, leave room for household expenses and the costs of owning the property. In either case, don't assume a rate cut will produce a set amount of growth in the property's value.

If you'd like help with the numbers, we can compare suitable loans, check your borrowing capacity and work through what a rate rise would mean for your repayments.

Bring your income details, deposit, debts and a realistic view of your living costs. That gives us something useful to work with when we look at your options.

Call 1300 088 065 or book a free assessment with Hunter Galloway.

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