The RBA announced a 0.25 percentage point increase from 4.60% to 4.85% on 3 November 2026, effective 4 November. It was the fifth rise this year. CBA expects the RBA to hold in December. For an existing borrower, the next step is to check your lender’s rate, repayments and household budget.
I'd start with the repayments you can manage on today's income. A hoped-for rate cut or a prediction about property prices is a poor substitute for knowing what will be left after the mortgage and the bills.
Watch: what I'd check before the November RBA decision
Before the November RBA decision, I'd check what you can change now: your current rate, whether fixing suits your plans and how much room you have in your budget. In this video, I explain where I'd start.
Watch the full video on YouTube. Recorded ahead of the 3 November 2026 decision.
What the latest rate and inflation figures mean
The September 2026 RBA decision
The RBA raised the cash rate target by 0.25% to 4.60% on 29 September 2026. The change took effect on 30 September. The cash rate influences what banks charge, but your lender sets the rate on your home loan.
The ABS figures released on 28 October put annual headline inflation at 4.3% for September, up from 4.0% in August. Annual trimmed mean inflation in the monthly CPI series was 3.6%, up from August's revised 3.5%.
The separate quarterly trimmed mean measure rose 1.0% in the September quarter and 3.7% over the year. These are different measures, not conflicting results.
These figures were released after the September rate decision and before the RBA's 3 November meeting.
CBA’s 28 October forecast, before the November decision
CBA changed its forecast on 28 October. That forecast called for a 0.25% rise on 3 November, taking the cash rate to 4.85%. It expected holds in December and February, with possible cuts in August and November 2027 if inflation eased enough. Further rises remained a risk, so those cuts were not something I’d build a budget around.
CBA expects a hold in December
CBA updated its forecast on 3 November, after the decision. It expects a hold at 4.85% in December. It still allows for cuts in August and November 2027, taking the cash rate to 4.35%. It says another rise in 2027 remains a risk, so I wouldn’t build a budget around those cuts.
I'd check what you can manage now, then see what another 0.25% rise would add. Your lender sets your mortgage rate, so an RBA increase does not automatically mean the same change or start date on your loan.
The next scheduled RBA decision is Tuesday 8 December 2026, after its meeting on 7 and 8 December. The RBA announced the November increase to 4.85% on 3 November, with the new target effective from 4 November.
If repayments are already tight, get in touch so we can compare your current loan with other options. Our guide to bank interest rate forecasts explains the forecasts and risks.
Leave room for costs outside the mortgage
Housing costs measured in the CPI rose 5.2% over the year, while fuel prices jumped 9.4% in September alone. Higher bills can leave less room for the mortgage even before your lender changes your repayments.
I'd use your own bills when checking what you can afford. National averages won't tell you how much your groceries, transport, insurance and electricity cost. If those bills have risen, the amount you can comfortably put towards a mortgage may have changed even if your income has stayed the same.
What first home buyers should check
A rate rise can reduce your borrowing capacity, but there is no reliable rule that every 0.25% increase removes $20k from everyone's budget. Your income, expenses, debts, loan term and the lender's assessment all affect the result. Have the figures recalculated before relying on an earlier approval.
Compare the homes you could buy now and later
CBA’s 3 November update reported that national dwelling values fell 1.2% in October and were 6.7% below their March peak. Brisbane fell 2% in October and was 8.3% below its May peak. Those are the latest monthly figures; the table below preserves the earlier September comparison.
Cotality’s October Home Value Index reported the September changes below. This is a historical comparison, not the latest month:
On smaller screens, scroll sideways to see every column.
| Market | September 2026 change |
|---|---|
| Australia | Down 1.1% |
| Brisbane | Down 1.5% |
| Regional Queensland | Down 0.9% |
These figures cover whole markets. They don't tell you what a particular home is worth. A lower purchase price can help, but higher interest rates can still leave the repayments beyond your budget. Compare both before deciding whether to buy, wait or change the search. Our outlook for future rate changes explains the factors affecting future decisions.
Separate your deposit from your repayment budget
On an $800k purchase, a 20% deposit is $160k and a 5% deposit is $40k. You also need money for buying costs and something left after you move in. A smaller deposit generally means a larger loan, so solving the deposit problem does not automatically make the repayments affordable.
Family help is one option
A gift or a family guarantee may help with the deposit or security a lender requires. You still need to qualify for the loan. A guarantee also creates obligations and risk for the guarantor, so everyone involved should understand the documents and obtain independent advice.
Use the extra choice to investigate the home
Cotality reported homes taking longer to sell and more total advertised stock across the combined capitals, giving buyers more choice. That does not mean every seller will accept a discount. Check recent comparable sales, the property's condition and how long it has been listed before making an offer.
Check whether the 5% Deposit Scheme fits
Eligible first home buyers may use the Australian Government 5% Deposit Scheme to buy with a minimum 5% deposit without Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI), a premium usually charged when your deposit is under 20%. You need to qualify for the scheme, buy within its price cap and get loan approval from a participating lender. You also need to live in the home as the scheme requires. You still pay back the loan and cover the buying costs. Our 5% Deposit Scheme guide explains the checks.
Set your budget before deciding when to buy
I'd be comfortable waiting if buying now meant using every dollar of savings and relying on a rate cut to make the loan work. Equally, a home that suits your needs and has repayments you can comfortably manage deserves a closer look. There is no single best month for every buyer.
Use our mortgage calculator for an initial estimate, then have a broker or lender assess your circumstances before setting an offer limit.
If the repayments are getting difficult
You do not need to cross a particular income percentage before asking for help. If repayments are leaving you short for essentials, or you are using credit to cover everyday bills, review the budget and contact your lender's hardship team early. Moneysmart explains the assistance to ask about. Free financial counselling is available through the National Debt Helpline on 1800 007 007.
What a 0.25% increase could cost
This example assumes a loan rate of 6.50% rising to 6.75%, using monthly principal-and-interest repayments and 30 years remaining. It assumes the same loan balance, no fees, no offset balance and no extra repayments. These are example rates, not current loan offers. A 0.25% rise costs slightly more at a higher starting rate, so this differs from the 6.00% example in our interest-rate outlook.
On smaller screens, scroll sideways to see every column.
| Loan balance | At 6.50% a year | At 6.75% a year | Monthly increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| $500k | $3,160 | $3,243 | About $83 |
| $600k | $3,792 | $3,892 | About $99 |
| $1m | $6,321 | $6,486 | About $165 |
Figures are rounded independently to the nearest dollar. Your lender's rate change, effective date, remaining term and repayment calculation may differ. Check its notice rather than assuming your payment changes on the day of an RBA announcement.
Why refinancing can be difficult
Banks generally test whether you could repay at a rate at least 3% above your actual rate, under APRA's rules. So if your loan rate is 6.5%, the bank generally checks that you could afford at least 9.5%, along with its other lending checks. You don't pay that higher rate.
A good payment history helps explain your situation, but it does not guarantee a new lender will approve the loan. Ask about a rate review with your current lender as well as refinancing options. If neither makes the repayments manageable, ask about hardship assistance rather than taking on more debt to cover the gap.
Compare the saving after switching costs
Ask your current lender to review your rate, then compare the offer with alternatives. There is no fixed discount that every long-term borrower can claim. Fees, features, equity and the remaining loan term can change which option is cheaper.
For example, a $600k loan with 30 years remaining has a monthly principal-and-interest repayment of about $3,912 at 6.8%, compared with $3,636 at 6.1%. The difference is about $276 a month, or $3,307 a year before fees, assuming the same balance and term, unchanged rates, no offset and no extra repayments. Neither rate is a loan quote.
Include discharge, application and any fixed-rate break costs, plus any LMI that may apply. Extending the term can reduce the monthly payment while increasing total interest. Moneysmart's refinancing checklist explains what to compare.
Check to see if you are eligible for a home loan
How higher rates affect the rest of the budget
Higher borrowing costs can leave less money for other spending. The November RBA statement also said spending has slowed and that the economy is expected to slow over the next few years. Those national figures won't tell you how secure your own income is.
Allow for changes in income
If overtime, commission or contract work pays part of your mortgage, run a second budget using a lower income. Work out which bills you could reduce and how long your available savings would cover the shortfall. That is more useful than assuming the next change will be a rate cut.
Check the full cost of combining debts
Debt consolidation may reduce monthly payments, but moving a short-term debt into a long home loan can increase the total interest you pay. It can also put your home at risk if previously unsecured debt becomes secured against it.
Work out the total cost and when you would pay off each debt before you go ahead. Moneysmart's debt consolidation guide explains why a lower monthly payment alone is not enough to judge the deal.
How a mortgage broker can help
Our Brisbane mortgage brokers can compare lenders, explain how they count your income and debts, and work out what it would cost to switch. Send us your current balance, rate, years left on the loan and recent statements so we can run the numbers. You can read reviews of our mortgage-broking service before deciding who to speak with.
Higher rates and falling home values can happen together
Housing supply matters, but it does not guarantee prices will rise while borrowing becomes more expensive. Cotality’s November report put national dwelling values 6.7% below their March 2026 peak. Brisbane was still 0.4% higher over the year despite its October fall. The monthly direction and the annual comparison tell different stories.
Renters face a different budget decision
Compare the rent you would keep paying with the full cost of ownership, including interest, rates, insurance, maintenance and any body corporate levies. Falling sale prices do not tell you what your next lease will cost. If you plan to buy an investment while renting elsewhere, include both properties' cash costs and an allowance for vacancy.
Waiting has costs and potential benefits
Waiting could give you time to save a larger deposit or find a lower-priced home. It can also mean paying rent for longer, and the homes you want may not become cheaper. Put both possibilities into the budget rather than assuming either a rate cut or a price rise will decide it for you.
Could you still afford it if the forecast is wrong?
CBA’s 3 November forecast puts the total national price fall from the peak at 14%. That covers the whole decline, not another 14% off today’s prices. CBA expects prices to stabilise in the second half of 2027, without a material recovery at that point. It won’t apply evenly to every suburb. I’d want your purchase to remain manageable if prices fall further or the recovery takes longer.
What to check before your next decision
An updated approval and a loan review
- If you are buying, confirm the amount, expiry and conditions of your pre-approval. Ask for an update if rates, income or debts have changed. The lender still needs to accept the property and check that you meet its conditions. Pre-approval doesn't make an unconditional offer risk-free.
- If you already own, compare your current rate, fees and remaining term with any new offer. Check whether an offset or other feature is saving enough to justify its cost. Keep the loan term consistent when comparing repayments.
Work out what fits your household
I'd leave room for higher repayments and check recent sales before deciding what to offer. If you're refinancing, compare the saving after fees. The forecasts can help you plan, but your own numbers need to work.
Our team at Hunter Galloway can review your borrowing options and explain what a different loan would mean for your repayments. Call 1300 088 065, contact us or book a free assessment.
Would you like to learn about your situation?
More resources for homebuyers
Rate rises and your budget: common questions
Sources for this update
- RBA: 3 November 2026 cash-rate decision and effective dates.
- ABS: September 2026 Consumer Price Index, released 28 October.
- ABS: September 2026 CPI, Appendix 1a, quarterly trimmed mean (spreadsheet).
- Cotality: September housing values and October Home Value Index tables, published 1 October 2026.
- Cotality: October housing values and November Home Value Index tables, published 2 November 2026.
- CBA: RBA now likely on hold after split-call November rate rise, 3 November 2026.
- RBA: Statement on Monetary Policy, November 2026.
- CBA Economic Insights (client research note), Belinda Allen, RBA in November: a rate hike now expected, 28 October 2026, pages 1-2.
- CBA: updated dwelling-price forecasts, 3 November 2026
- CBA Economic Insights (client research note), Luke Yeaman, RBA and interest rates: enough already… or just getting started?, dated 14 October 2026, pages 1-6. Reviewed 19 October 2026.
- CBA: earlier November hold call, 15 October 2026, superseded by its 28 October forecast.
- RBA: 2026 meeting dates.
- APRA: mortgage serviceability buffer.
- Moneysmart: problems paying your mortgage and switching loans.
About the author: Jayden Vecchio is a mortgage broker at Hunter Galloway. He helps borrowers compare home loans and understand lending requirements.
General information only. This doesn't consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. Rates, policies and figures change, so confirm current details before acting. Loans need lender approval.