Brisbane dwelling values fell 1.5% in September, the largest monthly fall among the capitals, but remained 5.9% higher than a year earlier. Buyers may have more room to negotiate. Higher rates still make the repayment the first number I would check.
This guide shows you what the current numbers mean, where different budgets are landing, and the checks I would make before you commit to a home.
If you want help matching the market to your actual borrowing position, our Brisbane mortgage broker team can check the repayments, upfront costs and lender issues before you make an offer.
Should you buy in Brisbane now?
If you are waiting for someone to call the top or bottom of the Brisbane market, you could be waiting a while.
The useful question is simpler: can you buy a suitable property, keep a cash buffer and hold it comfortably if rates or life change?
If the answer is yes, one monthly price move should not decide the whole plan. If buying would empty your savings or push repayments to the edge, a lower asking price is not a reason to stretch.
The main thing is to separate the market from your position. Brisbane can be a strong long-term market and still contain properties you should not buy. It can also soften for a few months while a well-located home remains the right decision for you.
Brisbane at a glance
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| Measure | Figure and period | What it means for you |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane values over the year to September 2026 | +5.9% | Values are higher than a year ago, but that annual figure masks the recent monthly decline. |
| Brisbane values in September 2026 | -1.5% | Brisbane recorded the largest capital-city fall that month. Check current comparable sales before negotiating. |
| Greater Brisbane house versus unit median gap (July 2026) | about $332,000 | Units can bring the purchase price and deposit back into range without leaving Brisbane altogether. |
| CBA Brisbane forecast, 1 October 2026 | -1% in 2026; +2% in 2027 | Calendar-year forecasts. CBA also expects an 8% peak-to-trough fall across the cycle; this is not an additional annual fall. |
| Advertised stock across the combined capitals | 23.1% higher than a year earlier | Cotality’s September report shows more choice across the capitals. This is not a Brisbane-only stock measure. |
Sources: Cotality’s September update and CBA Economic Insights (client research note), 1 October 2026. The house/unit gap is historical July 2026 Greater Brisbane context: house median $1,207,039 and unit median $875,135. It is not a September median or a valuation of a specific property.
What the market is doing now
The latest fall is more pronounced than the early slowdown.
Brisbane dwelling values fell 1.5% in September while remaining 5.9% higher over the year. Those two figures describe different periods. The annual gain does not mean values are still rising each month.
Cotality’s September report also shows longer selling times and more advertised stock across the combined capitals. That is broader market context, not a Brisbane-only inventory measure.
For a buyer, slower speed can be useful. You may see fewer frantic offers, longer conversations with agents and a better chance to make the contract subject to the checks you actually need.
Good entry-level homes can still move quickly. The difference is that you should not assume every open home will turn into a ten-person bidding contest.
What does your budget buy in Brisbane?
The citywide median is a useful temperature check. It is not a shopping list.
Cotality’s Greater Brisbane house median was about $1.21 million in July 2026. That historical citywide figure does not mean every Brisbane house cost $1.21 million, and it is not a current valuation. Use it to understand the broad price gap, then compare recent sales for the property type and area you want.
Use these price bands to guide your search; the available properties will vary.
Below about $700,000
Your realistic options are mostly units, townhouses and a smaller number of houses in the Ipswich corridor or on the Greater Brisbane fringe.
Caboolture, Kippa-Ring and Woodridge have had unit stock below the Brisbane-wide unit median. Condition, flood exposure and transport can change the value quickly from one street to the next.
At this price, a building and pest report, flood check and strata review can matter more than chasing another $10,000 off the asking price.
About $700,000 to $900,000
This is where the choice opens up.
You may be comparing an outer-corridor house with land against a better-located unit or townhouse closer to work. Neither is automatically the smarter buy.
The house may give you land and fewer shared-property rules. The unit may save hours of travel and carry lower repayments. Body corporate fees, upcoming works and insurance need to sit beside the purchase price in that comparison.
About $900,000 to $1 million
You have a broader choice of outer-ring houses, middle-ring units and townhouses.
For an eligible first home buyer, this range can still sit under the Australian Government 5% Deposit Scheme's $1 million Brisbane price cap. Staying under the cap does not make the loan affordable by itself. The lender still checks income, debts, living costs and the property.
Above $1 million
Choice improves, but so does the cost of being wrong.
At this level, I would pay close attention to the bank valuation, repayment buffer and what else the purchase stops you doing. An extra bedroom or slightly better postcode can be expensive if it leaves no room for repairs, parental leave or a future rate rise.
Houses versus units: the real trade-off
For a dated comparison, Brisbane units grew 17.1% over the year to 31 July 2026 and houses grew 14.3%. The house median was about $332,000 above the unit median in that release. These are July figures, not the latest September growth rates or medians.
That gap changes more than the purchase price.
Using that historical gap as an example, a 10% deposit differed by roughly $33,000 before duty and buying costs. For today’s purchase, run the same comparison using the actual prices of the properties on your shortlist.
Source: Cotality Home Value Index, data to 31 July 2026.
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| If you buy a house | If you buy a unit or townhouse |
|---|---|
| More chance of land and future extension | Lower entry price in many established areas |
| Often higher purchase price and repayments | Often closer to transport, work and amenities for the same budget |
| You control more of the maintenance | Body corporate fees become part of the holding cost |
| Flood, retaining walls, roofing and termites can create large one-off costs | Building defects, insurance and planned strata works can affect finance and resale |
| Outer-corridor value may come with a longer commute | Better location may come with less space and more supply nearby |
There is no market-wide winner.
The better fit is the property type you can afford to hold without resenting the compromise. If a cheaper house adds ten hours of travel every week, it may not feel cheaper for long. If a unit has a large special levy coming, the advertised price is not the real price.
Check to see if you are eligible for a home loan
Four areas worth comparing on a first-home budget
Ipswich: lower house entry, property checks matter
Ipswich remains one of the clearest places to look for a house on a first-home budget. Rail access and established centres make it more than a distant growth-corridor story. Our Ipswich suburb guide can help you narrow the search.
The trade-off is property variation. Flood exposure, building condition and the exact distance to a station can change the answer within the same suburb.
Do not buy the suburb average. Buy the street and the property after the checks are done.
Logan: compare the location and property type
Logan covers very different property types and locations, so a Greater Brisbane growth figure will not describe every option there.
A Woodridge unit, a Kingston house and a newer property around Loganlea do not have the same buyer pool, transport or maintenance profile. Compare current local sales and listings, then check the individual property.
Moreton Bay: lifestyle and transport, with a widening range
Moreton Bay gives buyers several different routes: rail-connected units, peninsula lifestyle and houses further north.
The trade-offs are just as varied. Coastal exposure can affect insurance and maintenance. Apartment buildings can have very different body corporate positions. A house further north may be cheaper but add a longer commute.
Middle-ring units: location can beat land
A well-run unit or townhouse in the middle ring can be a practical first step for someone who wants to stay close to work and established services.
That option only works if the building is well run.
Read the body corporate records. Check the sinking fund, insurance, defects and planned works. If the bank or insurer dislikes the building, your personal view of the suburb will not fix the finance.
For suburb-level research, use our Best suburbs in Brisbane guide and Brisbane suburb map. This page is the market overview. Those tools are where you narrow the search.
Three traps that can turn a cheap property into an expensive one
1. The contract price is not the bank valuation
You can agree to pay $800,000 and have the bank value the property lower.
The lender normally works from the lower figure when calculating the loan. If the valuation comes back at $760,000, you may need more cash, a smaller loan or a different structure.
This is why I would not use every dollar for the deposit before the valuation and contract conditions are clear.
2. Flood and insurance can change the finance
Brisbane buyers need to check flood exposure before they get emotionally committed.
Start with the council FloodWise report, then get an insurance quote for the exact address. A property can look affordable until the insurance premium or excess lands in the real budget.
3. A unit's special levy is part of the purchase price
Low body corporate fees do not tell you whether the building has enough money set aside.
Read the body corporate records and meeting minutes. If major waterproofing, cladding or lift work is coming, a special levy can remove the saving you thought you were getting.
Interest rates have changed what buyers can pay
The RBA announced a rise to 4.60% on 29 September 2026, effective 30 September. That was its fourth increase this year. Your lender’s home loan rate and the timing of any change are separate, so refresh the repayment calculation before making an offer.
The ABS August inflation release, published on 30 September, showed annual headline inflation at 4.0%, up from 3.5% in July. Underlying (trimmed mean) inflation, which strips out the biggest price swings, was unchanged at 3.6%. The release came after the RBA decision, not before it. I would not build a buying budget around a rate cut that has not happened. Our interest-rate outlook covers the dated bank forecasts.
That creates a strange market. Prices can remain high while the amount a bank will lend you falls.
Do not carry last year's pre-approval into this year's offer. Income may be the same, but assessment rates, existing debts and lender calculations can produce a different limit.
There are two numbers I would separate:
- The maximum the lender may approve.
- The repayment you are comfortable carrying.
Those numbers do not have to be the same.
If buying at the maximum leaves no room for rates, repairs or normal life, bring the search price down before you start negotiating with yourself at an open home.
How much deposit do you need?
Deposit is only one part of the cash position, but it is a useful starting point.
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| Purchase price | 5% deposit | 10% deposit | 20% deposit |
|---|---|---|---|
| $650,000 | $32,500 | $65,000 | $130,000 |
| $800,000 | $40,000 | $80,000 | $160,000 |
| $950,000 | $47,500 | $95,000 | $190,000 |
These are deposit figures only. They do not include transfer duty, conveyancing, inspections, lender costs, moving costs or the cash buffer you keep after settlement.
Eligible first home buyers may be able to use the Australian Government 5% Deposit Scheme and avoid Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI), a premium usually charged when your deposit is under 20%. Eligible single parents and legal guardians may have a 2% path. The lender still needs to approve the loan and the property must sit within the local price cap.
Queensland also has a $30,000 First Home Owner Grant for eligible new homes below $750,000, and first home transfer-duty concessions can change the upfront cost.
Use the 5% Deposit Scheme checker and Queensland stamp duty calculator for the current rules. Do not add the benefits together until each one has been checked against your property and contract.
Buy now or wait?
There are good reasons to buy now and good reasons to wait. Recent price growth is not enough on its own.
Buying now may make sense when
- Your pre-approval uses current income, debts and rates.
- The repayment remains comfortable with a buffer.
- You can pay the deposit and costs without emptying every account.
- The property works for at least the next few years.
- Building, flood, insurance and strata checks are acceptable.
- You are buying because the home suits your plan, not because the agent gave you a deadline.
Waiting may put you in a stronger position when
- You need the absolute maximum loan just to enter the suburb.
- Settlement would leave no emergency cash.
- Your job, income, visa or credit position is about to improve.
- You are relying on a grant or scheme that has not been confirmed.
- Every property in range comes with a compromise you already know you cannot live with.
- You would probably need to sell again within a short period.
Waiting is not failure. Sometimes six months of extra savings or a more consistent income history does more for the plan than trying to predict six months of property prices.
Would you like to learn about your situation?
What could happen next?
CBA’s 1 October 2026 forecast has Brisbane dwelling prices down 1% over calendar 2026 and up 2% in 2027, with an 8% peak-to-trough decline across the cycle. Those are different measures: the 8% is not an extra fall to add to the annual figures.
CBA expects the national recovery to begin during 2027, conditional on the RBA starting to cut rates. Without those cuts, the recovery could be smaller. No forecast can tell you what a particular Brisbane home will sell for next year. The Australian property market update compares the other capitals.
I would test the purchase against three reasonable outcomes.
If prices soften further
You may get more choice and negotiating room. A strong cash buffer matters because a small deposit gives you less equity protection early on.
If prices move sideways
You get time for income and savings to catch up. Property selection matters more than market momentum.
If prices start rising again
Buying sooner may help, but only if the repayment was comfortable in the first place. A rising market does not repair an overstretched budget.
Brisbane still has long-term demand drivers, including population growth, constrained new supply and major infrastructure. It also has stretched affordability and higher rates pulling the other way.
My view is simple: do not make a 30 year loan decision from a 12 month forecast.
Before you make an offer
Putting the market figures to work
Brisbane’s September decline gives buyers a reason to check comparable sales carefully. It does not remove the need for a comfortable repayment and a cash buffer.
Units and outer corridors have become the practical entry points for many buyers. More listings and slower momentum can create room to negotiate. Higher rates mean the finance needs to be tighter than it was a year ago.
I would choose the repayment first, then the property type, then the area. That stops a postcode or headline price from deciding the loan for you.
If you have a shortlist, send us the price, suburb and your deposit figure. We can check the borrowing range, upfront costs and lender issues before you commit to an offer.
Quick answers
Is Brisbane still affordable for first home buyers in 2026?
The citywide medians are high, but they do not describe every entry point. Units, townhouses and houses in parts of Ipswich, Logan and Moreton Bay can sit well below the Brisbane house median. Your useful limit is the price you can finance comfortably after deposit, costs and a cash buffer.
Are Brisbane house prices going to fall?
Brisbane dwelling values fell 1.5% in September 2026 and remained 5.9% higher over the year, according to Cotality’s 1 October report. CBA forecasts a further downturn across the cycle, but that cannot predict the sale price of a particular house. Compare recent local sales and make sure you can hold the property comfortably if prices soften further.
Are units a better buy than houses in Brisbane?
Units can give you a lower purchase price and a better location. Houses may give you land and more control. The right choice depends on repayments, commute, maintenance and the exact building or property. A unit with weak body corporate records can be worse value than a more expensive townhouse.
How much deposit do I need for a Brisbane home?
Some buyers can purchase with a 5% deposit, and eligible single parents or legal guardians may have a 2% route. A 10% or 20% deposit can reduce the loan and other costs. You also need money for duty, legal work, inspections, moving and a post-settlement buffer.
What should I check before buying in Brisbane?
Check finance, valuation risk, flood exposure, an insurance quote and the property's physical condition. For a unit or townhouse, also check body corporate records, insurance, defects, planned works and special levies.
Should I wait for rates to fall before buying?
Do not base the plan on a rate cut that has not happened. Use current repayments and leave room for change. If the purchase works now and suits your longer-term plan, you can assess future refinancing later. If it only works after a hoped-for rate cut, the budget is not ready yet.
Client examples are based on real situations. Names and identifying details have been changed.
Sources for the October market update
- Cotality: September housing values, published 1 October 2026, with detailed index tables.
- CBA Economic Insights (client research note), “Home prices fall further in September while credit growth holds steady in August”, 1 October 2026. Used for the Brisbane forecast.
- ABS: August 2026 Consumer Price Index, released 30 September
- RBA: 29 September 2026 decision and cash-rate effective dates
- Cotality: July 2026 historical price comparisons
Market update checked 1 October 2026. House and unit medians are dated 31 July 2026. Client stories describe individual situations and are not current borrowing-capacity quotes.
General information only. This doesn't consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. Rates, policies and figures change, so confirm current details before acting. Loans are subject to lender approval.