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Australian Property Market Update

The Latest Trends and Factors Affecting the Australian Property Market in 2024

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Welcome to our latest Australian Property Market Update, where we explore the latest trends and factors affecting the property market in 2024.

The Australian property market has shown unprecedented resilience in recent years, thanks to low interest rates, population growth, and supply shortages. However, housing affordability has now become one of the biggest issues of our generation.

So is The Great Australian Housing Crash imminent, or is the property Market stronger than ever? To find out, let’s look at the current state of the market. In this article, we will provide an in-depth analysis of the current state of the Australian property market for home buyers and investors looking to navigate the market in 2024.

Let’s dive in.

Table of Contents

What's Happening In The Australian Property Market.

Australian Property Market
The Australian property market has proven very resilient and is currently on the upturn. Let's dive into the data and make the most of the situation.

Looking at the data, the market is looking surprisingly resilient, showing strength and a positive trajectory. Actually, residential property listings were 48,793 nationwide in March 2024. The total number of listed properties in the 12 months to March 2024 increased to 506,612, which is 4.8% above the annual average volumes over the past 5 years. Property growth and the supply of dwellings have had a pretty big impact, outweighing the effects of the cash rate. Australia’s population grew by 624,100 people over the year to December 2023, an increase of 2.4%. This is the largest increase in Australia’s population on record and the highest growth rate since 2008.

We’ve also seen consistently high auction clearance rates, which are the signs of a healthy market. Sales volumes surged 6% compared to the same time last year after the reserve bank increased the rates 13 times. 

Plus, while national property prices were expected to decline between 7% and 10% in 2023, they actually fully recovered from the 2022 losses and even set a new record! In 2024, property prices are expected to continue rising but at a slower pace than during the recovery. 

Most experts are predicting interest rate cuts this year, which may increase demand for housing and drive up property prices. However, mortgage affordability is now at its worst since 1990, which may slow down the rate of growth of the housing market.

It’s important to remember that property market trends can be cyclical, and downturns often present opportunities for savvy investors to secure properties at a lower price point. Let’s take a look at the market data in more detail.

Australian Dwelling Values Overview

Australian dwelling values
The Australian property market has experienced some fluctuations over the past year.

The Australian property market has experienced some fluctuations over the past year. However, recent data suggest a positive trend. 

National home values actually increased in the 3 months to March, which is the largest quarterly increase since November of 2023. Over the past 12 months, dwelling values in Australia have risen by 8.8%, which is lower than the 9% rise seen in the 12 months to February 2024.

These changes present an optimistic outlook for the Australian property market.

Overall changes in dwelling values across Australia

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Australian Dwelling Values - Past 3 months

The Australian property market is always evolving, and the latest data suggests that there have been some ups and downs over the past few months. 

But don’t despair—there are still some areas of growth that we can celebrate. The 3-month changes in Australian dwelling values present a snapshot of the current state of the market, showing some regions experiencing growth and others experiencing a decline. 

While there was an overall increase of 1.6% in national home values, it’s worth highlighting that Regional WA has experienced significant growth of 4.6%. 

Regional Vic is the only region to experience a decline of -0.3%

In the capital cities, there has been an increase in dwelling values for Perth, Canberra, Adelaide, Brisbane, Sydney, Darwin and Hobart. Melbourne experienced a modest decline in dwelling values of -0.2%. 

Australian dwelling values 3 months changes

Australian Dwelling Values - Past 12 months

The Australian property market is always in flux, with the latest 12-month data showing a mix of growth and decline. 

There has been an overall increase of 8.8% in national home values, and it’s important to note that this is significantly higher than the decline of the previous 12 months.

Regional NT’s property market has experienced the highest decline in the 12 months to March, with property values declining by 5.4%. Only 1 other regional area is still in decline— regional Vic(-0.7%). Regional WA has experienced significant growth of 12.2%, with regional QLD and regional SA following closely at 10.5% and 9.7%. Additionally, some capital cities have seen double-digit growth, with Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide experiencing growth of 19.8%,15.9% and 13.5% respectively. 

No capital cities have experienced some decline in the past 12 months to March 2024. 

This data shows that the market is constantly changing and that growth is occurring in almost all areas of the Australian property market.

Australian dwelling values 12 months changes

Median Days On Market

The median days on market statistic provides an important insight into the health of the Australian property market. This metric indicates the average number of days that properties are listed on the market before being sold. As of March 2024, the overall median days on the market for Australia continue to increase to 36 days, compared to 34 days this time last year. Additionally, the median days on market for combined regionals is 50, and for combined capitals, it’s 29, down from 30 in March last year. These numbers suggest that properties are taking a slightly shorter time to sell across Australian capital cities but longer in regional areas.

An increase in the median days on market can signal low demand in the housing market, where supply is higher than demand. The shorter the properties sit on the market, i.e. a decrease in the median days on the market, the more likely sellers will increase their prices as buyers compete for properties. This trend could lead to an increase in property prices in the future.

However, it’s important to note that this statistic can also be influenced by other factors, such as seasonality, changes in government policy, and local economic conditions. Therefore, it’s not necessarily an indicator of an immediate downturn or upturn in the property market.

Overall, the increase in median days on the market across Australia suggests that the property market may be entering a less competitive phase. However, other factors, such as interest rates, government incentives, and population growth, can still affect the market in the short and long term. It’s essential to monitor this metric along with other indicators to get a complete picture of the property market’s health.

Vendor Discount

The average vendor discount is a metric that shows the difference between the original asking price of a property and the final selling price. 

A lower discount indicates that sellers are now offering fewer discounts, possibly due to steadily rising demand in the market. 

According to recent data from CoreLogic, the average vendor discount has slightly decreased for all regions of Australia from the previous quarter. 

In Australia as a whole, the average discount has decreased from -4.20% to -3.6% between March 2023 and March 2024. This indicates that sellers are now less willing to accept lower prices.

However, it is important to note that the discount rate is still relatively low, which suggests that demand for property remains strong in Australia. In conclusion, the decrease in the average vendor discount suggests that the property market in Australia is still relatively healthy. Buyers may still have opportunities to negotiate a better deal, albeit at a lower rate.

Mortgage Rates

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) recent statement indicates that global inflation is still high but moderating due to lower energy prices, improved supply chains, and tighter monetary policy.

According to the CBA, inflation is forecasted to return to 3% by the end of 2024. However, some experts predict that inflation will not decline to the RBA’s desired 2-3% until the end of 2025. GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.5% in 2024, and unemployment is projected to reach 4.5% by mid-2025.

The RBA is closely monitoring labour costs, which are rising from recent low rates.

The big four banks expect that interest rate cuts will occur towards the end of the year since inflation is beginning to go down. These factors will impact mortgage rates for the Australian property market.

Market Analysis - Capital Cities

Now that we’ve taken a look at the overall Australian property market let’s dive deeper into the market for the country’s capital cities. The capital cities often hold a significant portion of the property market and are home to many of Australia’s major industries and institutions. 

The property markets in these cities have seen significant changes, with some experiencing growth and others declining in value. By examining the data and trends for each city, we can better understand the current state of the Australian property market and what it means for homebuyers and investors. So, let’s take a closer look at each capital city and see how they have fared in the past year.

Sydney Property Market

Sydney property market 2024
The long-term outlook for the Sydney property market remains strong, with a unique lifestyle and economic benefits that will attract overseas migrants and plentiful jobs for highly paid knowledge workers.

In March 2024, the Sydney property market prices rose by 0.3%. However, affordability remains an issue, and buyers are acting with caution until there is more clarity about when rates will settle. In fact, Sydney houses are now double the price of units after reaching a new high in the December quarter. This makes it very difficult for homebuyers to upgrade from a unit to a detached home.

However, confidence in the market appears to be growing, and more investors are recognising that bargains can be found. 

According to a report, property prices are forecast to increase across all capital cities in 2024

In the next 6 months, the Sydney property market is expected to increase further, and once buyers and sellers see that inflation is under control and interest rates stop rising, they will step back into the market. 

The long-term outlook for the Sydney property market remains strong, with a unique lifestyle and economic benefits that will attract overseas migrants and plentiful jobs for highly paid knowledge workers. 

Rather than trying to time the next property purchase based on where we are in the cycle, taking a long-term view and getting a foothold in the Sydney property market while others are sitting on the sidelines may be an ideal strategy.

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Take a deeper look at the Sydney property market

Ready to take the next step in your Sydney property search? Check out our in-depth review of the best suburbs in Sydney to help you find your dream home! From up-and-coming areas to established neighbourhoods, our guide has everything you need to know about Sydney’s property hotspots. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to find your perfect home in one of the best suburbs in Sydney. Click here to read the full report now!

Read More: Best Suburbs in Sydney

Melbourne Property Market

Melbourne property market
Although Melbourne is experiencing slower growth than other cities, house prices and rents are expected to continue rising through 2024.

The Melbourne property market experienced a modest increase of 3.2% in the past 12 months and no change in March 2024. Melbourne dwelling prices are now -4.1% lower than the record high which was in March 2022. However,t there are many reasons to be optimistic. 

Although Melbourne is experiencing slower growth than other cities, house prices and rents are expected to continue rising through 2024.

Proptrack reported seven Melbourne suburbs even posted average house price gains above $100,000.

Currently, Melbourne properties are selling after 42 days, compared to 32 days in March 2023, which is a sign of decreased buyer activity in the market. Looking ahead, the long-term fundamentals of the Melbourne property market are strong. 

With a median house price of $961,000 and a median unit price of $510,000, there’s a window of opportunity to enter the market before it picks up even more.

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Brisbane Property Market

Brisbane property market 2024
With the population of Queensland expected to grow by over 16% by 2032, the long-term fundamentals of the Brisbane property market remain strong.

The Brisbane property market has experienced an impressive double-digit growth over the past 12 months. According to CoreLogic’s Home Value Index, Brisbane’s dwelling values are currently at a record high, even surpassing those of Melbourne!!

The median house price increased by 1.1% in March 2024. The total number of listings went up by 4.4% in the 12 months to March, but supply remains pretty tight. Plus, with the 2032 Olympics on the horizon, Brisbane will surely receive a boost in international recognition and investment, along with an influx of highly paid knowledge workers.

While it’s uncertain what the next 6 months will bring, there’s reason to believe that the yearly growth rate will continue to increase momentum.

With Queensland’s population expected to grow by over 16% by 2032, the long-term fundamentals of the Brisbane property market remain strong. 

So, Instead of trying to predict the market cycle, now is a good time to buy property in Brisbane. Don’t wait for others to make a move; take advantage of the current conditions and get ahead of the curve.

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Take a deeper look at the Brisbane property market

Ready to learn more about the Brisbane property market?

Don’t miss out on our in-depth report, which provides a detailed analysis of the market’s current state, growth prospects, and investment opportunities. 

Click the link to access the report now and stay ahead of the game in the Brisbane property market!

Read More: Brisbane Property Market Update

Adelaide Property Market

Adelaide property market
The long-term outlook for Adelaide remains positive. If you're looking to enter the property market, now may be the perfect time to move and secure a property in one of Australia's most resilient markets.

Despite the uncertainty of the property market, the Adelaide market has remained relatively resilient to price falls. The median house value in Adelaide is currently at a record high and has increased by an impressive 13.3% in the 12 months to March 2024. 

According to NAB, Adelaide is expected to grow significantly in the next 12 months. This may be good news for homeowners but will add to the affordability pressures. It’s important to remember that the extent of house value increases remains to be seen, especially as we are waiting to find out if the RBA will cut interest rates this year. 

However, there’s still plenty of opportunity to take advantage of the current market conditions. Adelaide’s long-term outlook remains positive. If you’re looking to enter the property market, now may be the perfect time to move and secure a property in one of Australia’s most resilient markets.

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Perth Property Market

Perth property market
Perth is a good city to buy property in due to its relative affordability, rising population and flourishing economy.

Perth is defying the odds and emerging as a bright spot in the Australian property market. Just like Adelaide, Perth dwelling values are currently at a record high! Despite the downturn that affected the rest of the country in 2023, the Perth property market showed resilience and remained an attractive investment option for buyers. This saw the median home values of Perth increase by an impressive 19.8% in the year ending March 2024.

With low vacancy rates, rising rents, and relative affordability, Perth is becoming a hotspot for investors from eastern states. Most property experts are optimistic about Perth’s market and predict continued growth over the next 12 months due to the low stock level and strong buyer demand.

Perth is a good city in which to buy property due to its relative affordability, rising population, and flourishing economy.

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Hobart Property Market

Hobart Property Market
While the past couple of months have been challenging for Hobart, there are still plenty of opportunities to be found for those who are willing to put in the effort.

It’s important to remember that the Hobart housing market has recently experienced a modest increase in house prices: 0.2% in March and 0.3% in the past year.

The average sale price of a home in Hobart as of March 2024 is still $698,596, which is nothing to sneeze at. The Hobart market presents a great opportunity for savvy investors to enter the market at a lower price point. 

If you’re thinking of investing in Hobart, there are certain suburbs that you should definitely consider. West Hobart, North Hobart, and South Hobart are all areas that are still showing strong growth potential despite the broader decline in prices. 

By taking a closer look at these areas, you may find some great opportunities to help you build wealth over the long term. So, while the past couple of months have been challenging for Hobart, there are still plenty of opportunities for those willing to put in the effort.

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Darwin Property Market

Darwin property market
If you're looking for a smart investment opportunity with positive long-term prospects, Darwin's property market is definitely worth considering!

Are you looking to invest in property? Darwin could be your answer! The Darwin property market has experienced a small decrease in median house prices in March 2024. However, it is still considered Australia’s most affordable capital city, with a median dwelling value which is still the same as it was 9 years ago.

Even more encouragingly, the city has been performing well over the past year, with a modest increase in housing value of 0.5%. Plus, with median weekly house rents increasing by 3.0% annually, it’s a great time to invest in property in Darwin.

Looking ahead, the outlook for the next 6 months is positive, with the Darwin property market expected to rise, though not as high as the other cities. Darwin has much going for it, including a low-density population and a relaxed lifestyle. The city has seen an uptick in interest from investors and homeowners. Therefore, if you’re looking for a smart investment opportunity with positive long-term prospects, Darwin’s property market is definitely worth considering!

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Canberra Property Market

Canberra property market
While there may be some decline in the short term, the outlook for the next 6 months in the Canberra property market is bright.

House prices increased by a small but encouraging 1.9% over the past year. Moreover, the strong auction clearance rates throughout the year have been another sign of the strength of the Canberra property market. 

There are also still government incentives to encourage first-home buyers into the market. While there may be some decline in the short term, the outlook for the next 6 months in the Canberra property market is bright.

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BONUS: Will Interest Rates Go Down In 2024

Will interest rates go down in 2024?

If you are like millions of other Australians out there, you may be wondering whether interest rates will go down this year. There are differing predictions from experts, but here are the predictions from the big four banks:

Commonwealth Bank: Experts are predicting massive interest rate cuts next year starting in September and also in 2025

ANZ bank: ANZ expects rates to remain the same at 4.35% through 2024 but with a single rate cut towards the end of the year.

AMP: AMP is slightly more optimistic, expecting rates to be cut in the middle of the year and reduced to 3.6% by the end of 2024.

NAB: NAB is expecting the rate to not change until late 2024.

BONUS: What Could Cause The Australian Property Market To Crash in 2024?

Will the property market crash in 2024?
The Australian property market has survived a global pandemic and 13 interest rate rises, so it is unlikely that the market will crash soon.

So, first off, a housing market crash isn’t just one bad auction. A market correction is considered a price reduction of 10 to 20%. A market crash is considered a reduction of 20% or more, and it doesn’t happen overnight. It can take months and sometimes years for this to occur. In fact, in Australia, the last time we had anything close to this was in 1990, the recession we had to have. The crazy thing is the downturn in housing was pretty mild. From peak to trough, prices declined nationally by just 8% in real terms. Compare this to the stock market, where we had Black Monday in 2020, and the ASX lost 30% from its peak in March 2020 and had a record 9.7% loss in a single day.

That said, what actually causes the housing market crash? Let’s dive into the factors that can actually cause a market downturn.

  • Higher household debts. The average household debt level grew by 7.3% in 2023, and it would be worth keeping an eye on these debt levels to ensure that people aren’t getting in over their heads. However, the Australian banking system is heavily regulated. Banks are still required to use a 3% buffer, so if you’re applying for a loan today, the banks will add a 3% buffer from the current rates. So, if the interest rates are 6%, they will assess your loan at 9%.
  • Overvalue or oversupply of properties. Realistically, the high value of properties in Australia is due to a limited supply and attractive affordability for investors. The gap between housing supply and demand pushed property prices up in 2023 and could potentially keep pressure on in 2024. But it could take it off if a huge glut of properties suddenly built in a short period and hit the market. But this looks pretty unlikely.
  • Massive Global shocks like the Global Financial Crisis or Covid. While the COVID shutdown weakened growth and momentum in the United States and the European Union, it didn’t really have the same impact on our property Market that it did overseas. The risk of a local recession could cause a cascading effect, where if the economies overseas slow down, it could mean less work here, unemployment could increase, and that would affect housing. But also, as we saw during COVID-19, when people let go of their jobs, the banks stepped in and allowed people to have 12-month interest-only periods. So again, while that could happen, it looks pretty unlikely, given the current economic indicators.

Bonus: What Happens To Your Home If Prices Plummet?

What happens if the Australian property market crashes
What happens if the housing market crashes?

We’ve all had this nightmare before: You finally achieve your dream of owning a home. After years of saving, you’re finally holding the keys to your home in your hands. You have that feeling of satisfaction that you’ve finally made it—only to overhear the news and find out the property Market in Australia is tanking. So, let’s break down what would really happen if you bought a home and the property market took a complete nosedive. 

How is real estate valued in Australia?

Firstly, let’s start by understanding how homes are valued. How do you actually know what your house is worth? A lot of people talk about Market values, appraisals, and Renovations when discussing the property market, but when it all comes down to it, the true value of a home is what someone else is willing to pay for it.

What happens if you buy and the market crashes?

All right, so to answer the question, what happens if you buy and the market crashes? To paint a clear picture, let’s dive into some hypothetical scenarios of what could happen if the market takes a tumble.

Meet our friends Stretched To The Limit Liam, Savvy Sam, and Timid Taylor. Each represents a different approach to buying a home, and each will face the market’s ups and downs in a unique way.

Stretched To The Limit Liam.

Stretched To The Limit Liam mortgage payments more than half income
Liam’s mortgage takes up more than half his income. How is he going to weather a housing crash?

Liam went all in when buying a house, pushing his financial limits to the max. His mortgage payments take up more than half of his income. When the market takes a dive, Liam’s financial flexibility dives with it. Refinancing isn’t an option because the bank says he doesn’t have affordability, and selling would mean he’d take a loss. Liam’s tale is a cautionary one. It’s pretty generalized, obviously, but it shows that overextending yourself can turn your housing dream into a financial nightmare if the market turns sour.

Savvy Sam, The Prudent Buyer.

Savvy Sam has all her ducks in a row financially.

Sam’s the kind of person who reads the fine print, plans for the unexpected and has an emergency fund tucked away. By choosing a home that is well within her means, Sam’s mortgage payments are manageable and not monstrous. So when the market downturn hits, Sam stands firm. The housing values might dip temporarily, but she’s in it for the long run and can weather the storm without upending her life. The main takeaway here is having some emergency funds and having 3 to 6 months in repayments as a buffer if something happens to your job. Insurance is in place to make sure you can weather a storm if something happens.

Timid Taylor The Observer.

timid homebuyer will miss out on the property market
Timid Taylor is missing the stress of the housing market crash. But what else is he missing out on?

Taylor’s watching from the sidelines, hesitant to dive into the market and the home-buying pool amidst all the market uncertainty. By holding off buying, Taylor avoids the potential of a market crash — no worries about falling homes or values or mortgage Mayhem. But Taylor misses out on potential joys and benefits of home ownership, like building Equity or catching the market back on its way up. Now, Taylor’s path might be safest, but it’s also worth remembering when you play it safe, you miss out on opportunities to grow.

So whether you’re Stretched To The Limit Liam, Savvy Sam, or Timid Taylor, the key to navigating a housing market downturn is understanding your financial landscape and making choices that align with your long-term goals. Remember, the goal of home ownership isn’t just about buying a house; it’s about doing it the right way so you can enjoy it come rain, hail, or shine.

By working with a mortgage broker, you can plan wisely, understand your limit, and ensure a dip in the market is just a bump in the road, not the end of your journey. 

Looking To Buy A Property Anywhere In Australia? Here Are Your Next Steps

If you’re looking to buy a property anywhere in Australia, Hunter Galloway has you covered. Our team of experienced brokers can help you navigate the often complex and overwhelming process of buying a home, no matter where you are in the country.

With our help, you can secure the best possible loan for your unique financial situation and take advantage of the current market conditions. Don’t hesitate to take the first step towards your dream home. Call us today at 1300 088 065 or

Unlike other mortgage brokers, who are one-person operations, we have an entire team of experts dedicated to making your home loan journey as simple as possible.

If you want to get started, please give us a call on 1300 088 065 or book a free assessment online to see how we can help.

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