Australian home prices fell again in October, while inflation picked up and the RBA raised rates on 3 November. If you’re trying to buy your first home, that can feel contradictory: the price may be coming down, but the repayment still needs more of your pay.
National dwelling values fell 1.2% in October and were 6.7% below their March 2026 peak. Every capital except Hobart and Darwin recorded a monthly fall. Buyers may have more room to negotiate, but a lower purchase price does not automatically mean a comfortable loan.
November 2026 at a glance: prices down, rates up
Cotality’s national dwelling index fell 1.2% in October, its seventh consecutive monthly decline. Values were 2.8% lower over the year. These figures are from Cotality’s 2 November release and describe the national index, not the value of any one home.
Key highlights
The falls have spread. Brisbane fell 2.0% in October, Perth 1.7%, Sydney 1.6%, Adelaide 1.2%, Melbourne 0.8% and Canberra 0.7%. Darwin rose 0.6% and Hobart 0.5%. Sydney remained the furthest below its recent peak, down 10.1% from February 2026.
The cash rate is 4.85%, effective 4 November 2026. The RBA announced the 0.25 percentage point rise on 3 November, its fifth increase this year. Your home loan rate is a separate figure, so check your lender’s actual rate and repayments.
Inflation rose again. The ABS September release put annual headline inflation at 4.3%, up from 4.0% in August. Underlying (trimmed mean) inflation, which strips out the biggest price swings, was 3.6%, up from a revised 3.5%. That release came out on 28 October, before the RBA decision.
Historical inflation reading: August 2026. The ABS August release put annual headline inflation at 4.0%, up from 3.5% in July. Underlying (trimmed mean) inflation, which strips out the biggest price swings, was unchanged at 3.6%. That August release came out on 30 September, the day after the September RBA decision.
Buyers are facing several pressures at once. CBA attributes the downturn to higher borrowing costs, weaker sentiment, tighter finance and announced housing tax changes. That is its assessment of demand, not a prediction of what a particular seller will accept.
Homes are taking longer to sell. Cotality said capital-city listings reached the highest level for this time of year since 2019, even though fresh listings were almost 18% below average. The final capital-city auction clearance rate was 43.6% for the week to 25 October. Those are combined-market figures; check comparable local sales before deciding how much negotiating room you have.
Check your first-home options early. A grant or deposit scheme may help with upfront costs, but it does not replace the lender’s assessment. Use our 5% Deposit Scheme guide and the current program information from Housing Australia before including assistance in your budget.
What this means for buyers
More stock and softer prices can give you time to inspect, compare and negotiate. Higher rates pull the other way by increasing loan costs. I would refresh the finance first, then use recent sales for the exact property type and area you want. A national decline is useful context, but it cannot tell you whether an individual listing is good value.
Sources: Cotality, 2 November 2026; ABS September 2026 CPI, released 28 October; Cotality final auction clearance rates, week ending 25 October 2026, published 29 October. Current cash rate: RBA decision announced 3 November 2026, effective 4 November.
Why prices are falling and what it means for affordability
Historical, July 2026: five-year changes before the latest October data.
Read the historical July chart as a table
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| Capital | Five-year change |
|---|---|
| Sydney | +9.5% |
| Melbourne | -1.6% |
| Brisbane | +71.2% |
| Adelaide | +68.5% |
| Perth | +85.5% |
| Hobart | +14.4% |
| Darwin | +30.3% |
| Canberra | +9.4% |
Australian property prices have turned
National dwelling values were 2.8% lower over the year to October 2026 after seven monthly falls. Regional markets also weakened: the combined regional index fell 0.7% in October and 2.0% over the quarter, although it remained 3.4% higher over the year. Combined-capital values were 4.8% lower over the year.
Cotality’s November 2026 release put the national median dwelling value at $884,855. That is an October figure for the whole market. The detailed city medians below are from the same release.
What’s pushing Australian property prices down?
Borrowing costs: the cash rate is higher after five increases in 2026. A buyer whose income has not changed can still find that their approved loan or comfortable repayment budget has changed. CBA also points to weaker sentiment and housing tax announcements as pressures on demand.
Longer-term demand and supply: population growth and the pace of new construction still matter, but they do not prevent prices falling when buyers have less to spend. Keep those longer-term considerations separate from the repayment and property checks needed for a purchase today.
What the earlier affordability figures tell us
Cotality’s November 2025 Housing Affordability Report put servicing a new loan at 45% of median household income and saving a 20% deposit at 11 years. It put the house value-to-income ratio at 8.9 times, compared with 6.6 five years earlier. These are historical national measures, not a calculation of your household’s position after the latest price and rate changes. A deposit scheme may reduce the cash needed upfront while leaving a larger loan to repay.
Mortgage costs and borrowing power
The June-quarter 2026 ABS Lending Indicators put the average new owner-occupier dwelling loan at about $731,000. That is a dated market comparison, not a borrowing target. Banks generally assess a new mortgage at a rate at least 3 percentage points above the loan rate, so a fresh assessment matters after rates change. Review unused credit-card limits and existing debts, then set a repayment you can sustain rather than borrowing automatically to the maximum. Our interest-rate outlook explains the latest bank forecasts.
Renting vs buying
In the July 2026 Cotality release, national rents were 5.9% higher over the year and the vacancy rate was 1.7%. The earlier November 2025 affordability report put rent at 33.4% of household income. Those historical figures explain some of the pressure renters have faced; compare today’s rent with the full cost of owning, including loan repayments, rates, insurance and maintenance.
Historical, July 2026: annual changes in rents.
Read the historical July chart as a table
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| Capital | Houses | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 6.1% | 4.4% |
| Melbourne | 5.2% | 4.9% |
| Brisbane | 6.7% | 6.2% |
| Adelaide | 5.4% | 5.0% |
| Perth | 8.1% | 7.8% |
| Hobart | 8.3% | 6.9% |
| Darwin | 11.1% | 9.4% |
| Canberra | 4.0% | 1.5% |
Sources: October index movements from Cotality, 2 November 2026; historical Cotality July 2026 and November 2025 affordability releases; ABS Lending Indicators, June quarter 2026.
Check to see if you are eligible for a home loan
How each capital city moved in October
The October movements below are from Cotality’s November Home Value Index report. The table shows Cotality median values at 31 October 2026. The city summaries below use October index movements.
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| City / region | October median dwelling | October median house | October median unit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | $1,178,959 | $1,438,090 | $857,872 |
| Brisbane | $1,018,401 | $1,111,530 | $811,084 |
| Perth | $942,018 | $982,146 | $692,036 |
| Adelaide | $916,860 | $977,551 | $661,647 |
| Canberra | $844,400 | $983,965 | $586,571 |
| Melbourne | $773,027 | $906,067 | $620,996 |
| Hobart | $743,854 | $796,892 | $583,908 |
| Darwin | $641,873 | $745,726 | $485,887 |
| Regional Australia | $752,960 | $769,510 | $663,466 |
Sydney
Sydney values fell 1.6% in October and 9.4% over the year. They were 10.1% below the February 2026 peak. If you are buying, use the extra choice to compare actual recent sales and keep your finance conditions in order. Our NSW stamp duty guide covers the separate upfront-cost question. To compare areas, use our best suburbs in Sydney guide.
Melbourne
Melbourne values fell 0.8% in October and 7.6% over the year. A lower city median can make it worth comparing with other capitals, but the property’s condition, location and ownership costs still decide whether it suits your budget.
Brisbane
Brisbane fell 2.0% in October, the largest capital-city decline that month, but remained 0.4% higher over the year. That is a sizeable change from its earlier growth pace. Our Brisbane Property Market Update covers the local buying choices and checks.
Perth
Perth fell 1.7% in October while remaining 3.9% higher over the year. The annual gain should not be read as proof that prices are still rising each month. Test your budget against current sales rather than an older growth forecast.
Adelaide
Adelaide fell 1.2% in October and remained 3.7% higher over the year. Compare recent local sales and the total cost of buying. Eligible buyers can also check our SA first home owners grant guide.
Canberra
Canberra values fell 0.7% in October and were 3.7% lower over the year, according to Cotality’s 2 November 2026 report. Use recent comparable sales for the area and property type you want.
Hobart
Hobart values rose 0.5% in October and were 5.5% higher over the year. The annual gain and latest monthly rise describe different periods; neither tells you whether one listing is fairly priced.
Darwin
Darwin and Hobart were the only capitals to rise in October. Darwin was up 0.6%, with annual growth of 9.7%. The October median in the table is the lowest capital-city median, but check current listings, insurance and the property itself before treating that as an affordable purchase.
Sources: October movements and medians from Cotality’s November 2026 Home Value Index. For current program eligibility and price caps, see our 5% Deposit Scheme guide.
CBA forecasts: the latest view and earlier comparison
CBA’s 3 November 2026 forecast puts the national peak-to-trough fall at about 14%. CBA also expects national prices to fall 8% in 2026 and another 3% in 2027, and the five mainland state capitals to fall about 15% from peak to trough. It forecasts falls across the whole cycle of about 18% for Brisbane and Perth, 16% for Sydney, and 13% for Melbourne and Adelaide. These are total falls from each market’s peak, not further falls from today’s prices. CBA expects the national market to stabilise in the second half of 2027, without a material recovery at that point. The table below preserves its earlier 1 October forecasts for comparison; it is not the latest forecast.
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| Market | 2026 calendar-year forecast | 2027 calendar-year forecast | Peak-to-trough forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| National | −6% | +2% | −9% |
| Five mainland state capitals | −7% | +2% | −10% |
| Sydney | −12% | +2% | −13% |
| Melbourne | −10% | +2% | −12% |
| Brisbane | −1% | +2% | −8% |
| Perth | 0% | +2% | −8% |
| Adelaide | −1% | +1% | −8% |
| Hobart | 0% | 0% | −7% |
| ACT | −7% | +2% | −9% |
| Darwin | +2% | −1% | −7% |
Source: CBA Economic Insights (client research note), 1 October 2026, dwelling-price forecast table. The national index, five-capital average and individual city forecasts cover different areas. Peak-to-trough declines cover the cycle and are not additional calendar-year falls.
For a buyer, I would use these forecasts to test the downside: could you still hold the home comfortably if its value fell or rate cuts took longer? A forecast cannot pick the right week to buy. The purchase needs to work with your current income and repayments.
Government help for first home buyers
Assistance can change the deposit and upfront costs, but eligibility, occupancy rules and local price limits need to be checked for the property you want.
Start with our 5% Deposit Scheme guide and Housing Australia’s first-home buyer website for the federal guarantee and Help to Buy programs. They work differently, so do not assume benefits can be added together.
The First Home Super Saver Scheme has its own contribution and release rules. Check these before signing a contract.
For state assistance, use our guides for buying in Queensland, NSW, WA and SA. We can then check the loan alongside the assistance you may qualify for.
Would you like to learn about your situation?
What to do before you make an offer
Start with a current borrowing-capacity check and a repayment you can manage. Our borrowing power calculator can help you begin, followed by a lender assessment using your actual figures.
Compare recent sales in your own area, including units and outer suburbs if they suit how you live. Softer prices can create room to negotiate, but do not give up property or contract checks to secure a discount. Get your pre-approval organised before making an offer.
If you already had finance lined up before the latest rate change, ask for it to be checked again. Speak with a mortgage broker about the purchase price, deposit, upfront costs and cash you want left after settlement.
Need help?
The Hunter Galloway team works with first-home buyers daily. We can help you:
- understand your borrowing capacity
- compare 30+ lenders
- prepare a pre-approval application
- position your offer competitively
Getting this groundwork sorted helps you make an offer with a clearer budget and fewer surprises.
Sources for this update
- APRA: mortgage serviceability buffer, 28 May 2026
- Cotality: September 2026 housing values, published 1 October, with detailed index tables.
- Cotality: October 2026 housing values, published 2 November, with detailed index tables.
- Cotality: final auction clearance rates, week ending 25 October 2026, published 29 October
- CBA Economic Insights (client research note), “Home prices fall further in September while credit growth holds steady in August”, 1 October 2026. Used for the bank’s forecasts and commentary.
- CBA: updated dwelling-price forecasts, 3 November 2026
- ABS: September 2026 Consumer Price Index, released 28 October
- ABS: August 2026 Consumer Price Index, released 30 September
- RBA: 3 November 2026 decision and cash-rate effective dates
- Cotality: original July 2026 historical comparison and July chart figures and tables
General information only. This doesn't consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. Rates, policies and figures change, so confirm current details before acting. Loans are subject to lender approval.